What we track, how we track it, and why
Sealed Alpha is a free analytics tool for Pokemon TCG sealed products. We track daily prices, supply levels, sales velocity, and card values across every modern set — then compute buy/sell signals, rip scores, and lifecycle comparisons so you can make more informed decisions about what to buy, hold, or open.
We focus on the XY era (2014) through the current Scarlet & Violet era. This isn't arbitrary — these eras share a consistent product structure (booster boxes, ETBs, collection boxes, bundles) and follow predictable market cycles tied to print runs, rotation, and collector demand.
Vintage products (Base Set through Black & White) operate on completely different dynamics. Prices are driven by nostalgia, scarcity of sealed inventory, and grading speculation rather than the supply-and-demand patterns we can meaningfully track. Including vintage alongside modern sets would distort the signals and comparisons that make this tool useful.
By keeping the scope to XY and newer, every product in the database has comparable pull rate structures, similar box configurations, and overlapping collector demographics — which means cross-set and cross-era comparisons actually tell you something useful.
Buy/sell signals are composite scores derived from six market indicators: price momentum (30-day trend), supply depletion rate, price relative to historical range, days since release, sales velocity, and rip score. No single metric drives the signal — it's the combination that matters.
These signals are informational, not prescriptive. They highlight products where multiple indicators align, but they can't account for upcoming reprints, market sentiment shifts, or other factors outside the data. Use them as one input alongside your own research.
A rip score tells you the expected value of opening a sealed product relative to its purchase price. It's calculated by combining pull rates with current card values for each rarity tier, then dividing by the product's market price. A rip score above 1.0 means the cards inside are worth more than the sealed product — in theory.
In practice, rip scores assume average luck and don't account for the cost of selling individual cards. They're most useful for comparing relative value across products, not as a guarantee of profit.
We also track Japanese Pokemon TCG sealed products separately. Japanese sets follow different release schedules, product types, and pricing dynamics than their English counterparts. The dashboard lets you toggle between English and Japanese markets to compare independently.
Notice incorrect data, have a feature request, or just want to talk sealed product? Hit me up on IG @kitakami_cards.